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Will the Trump Era be Good for CPG Investment?

Explore how Trump-era economic policies impact the CPG industry, from tax reforms and trade policies to deregulation. Learn how these shifts affect marketing, supply chains, and consumer trends, and discover strategies to adapt, boost brand loyalty, and drive growth in 2025.

Christian Jurinka

Published On:

February 4, 2025
February 4, 2025

Updated On:

February 4, 2025
February 4, 2025

Table of Content

  • Overview of the Trump Administration's Economic Policies
  • Trump Era Impact on CPG Industry Investments
  • Trade Policies and Their Effects on the CPG Sector
  • Corporate Tax Reforms and CPG Profitability
  • Deregulation and Its Influence on CPG Operations
  • Tariff Implications for the CPG Supply Chain
  • Effects on Field Marketing Strategies
  • Case Studies: Successful Strategies for CPG Brands in Adapting to Economic Shifts
  • Influence on Experiential Consumer Experiences
  • Conclusion
  • FAQ

The Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) industry is vital to the U.S. economy. It covers many products that consumers rely on daily, such as food, beverages, household items, and personal care goods. This sector contributes significantly to both the manufacturing and retail industries, and it’s also at the center of economic growth and consumer spending. CPG companies are often indicators of consumer confidence as they reflect consumer spending patterns and public preferences.

With the upcoming second term of the Trump administration, many are left wondering what the Trump era impact on CPG will be. The projections show that the administration’s ongoing initiatives on tax reforms, trade relations, and deregulation are likely to have significant implications for sectors across the board, including CPG.

In this article, we aim to explore how Trump's economic policies could influence CPG industry investment trends, particularly when it comes to field marketing strategies and experiential consumer experiences. By analyzing the potential impacts of these policies, we will examine whether the Trump-era economic impact will foster a favorable environment for growth in these areas and how companies can capitalize on them to drive innovation and strengthen their market positions.

Overview of the Trump Administration's Economic Policies

The Trump administration's economic policies are expected to heavily influence the U.S. business sectors, including CPG. These policies, which focus on corporate tax changes, trade adjustments, and deregulation, aim to stimulate economic growth, enhance competitiveness, and promote domestic manufacturing.

Tax Reforms

One of the keys in Trump’s economic approach has been corporate tax reform, with the corporate tax rate reduced from 35% to 21% during its first term. As part of its agenda for the second term, there may be further efforts to adjust corporate tax policy, potentially extending tax relief in specific sectors.

These tax policies are designed to encourage business investment by allowing companies to retain more of their profits. This could, in turn, facilitate reinvestment in areas like research and development, capital expenditures, and workforce expansion. Additional tax savings might also be allocated to dividends or wage increases, potentially improving investor confidence and economic stability.

Trade Policies

Trade policies aim to reshape the global economic environment in favor of U.S. interests. This includes protecting domestic industries and promoting local manufacturing, as well as efforts to renegotiate key trade agreements, such as USMCA (formerly NAFTA).

The correlation between trade policies and the CPG sector could have various effects, especially regarding the cost of imports and exports. The imposition of tariffs on certain goods and raw materials may increase import prices, prompting businesses to explore domestic alternatives or opt for global supply chain adjustments.

While promoting domestic manufacturing could bolster U.S. production capabilities, trade tensions with other countries may increase businesses' costs and complicate international trade relations.

Deregulation Efforts

The Trump administration’s efforts are expected to reduce regulatory burdens on businesses, particularly in energy, manufacturing, and health care, by reducing compliance costs and increasing operational flexibility for businesses.

The deregulation effects on CPG could lead to cost savings in environmental regulations and product safety standards. However, these changes will need to consider consumer protection to ensure that product quality and public health are not compromised.

Trump Era Impact on CPG Industry Investments

The CPG industry is facing significant shifts due to the Trump administration’s renewed focus on pro-business economic policies. From tax reforms to deregulation, these initiatives aim to create a more favorable environment for investment and growth within the sector.

Investor Confidence

The economic policies expected in Trump’s second term, such as further tax reductions and regulatory rollbacks, are likely to boost investor confidence in the CPG sector. Historically, such policies have improved stock performance and attracted capital inflows. However, investor sentiment will also depend on their consistent implementation, as sudden shifts in trade agreements or tax laws could introduce uncertainty.

Capital Expenditure Trends

With potential policy shifts favoring domestic production and infrastructure improvements, CPG companies might increase capital expenditures on automation, supply chain resilience, and sustainability. These investments could target reducing dependency on international suppliers or meeting new consumer preferences shaped by policy-driven economic changes.

Mergers and Acquisitions

The regulatory environment changes could set the stage for heightened mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity in the CPG sector. Companies may pursue strategic deals to diversify offerings, streamline supply chains, or expand into domestic markets to capitalize on anticipated tax benefits and ultimately cut costs. However, regulatory oversight will definitely influence how businesses approach consolidation opportunities during this term.

Trade Policies and Their Effects on the CPG Sector

The Trump administration's trade policies, which focus on reshaping international agreements and emphasizing domestic manufacturing, were among the most heavily discussed areas before the elections. These policies will have direct implications for the CPG sector. Tariffs and shifting trade agreements are likely to redefine supply chains, cost structures, and market access strategies for many companies.

Tariff Implementation

Tariffs on raw materials and finished consumer goods will be essential in trade policy. They aim to protect domestic industries but import tariffs on consumer goods may increase costs for CPG companies reliant on international suppliers. For example, the planned tariffs on steel and aluminum of 25% and 10%, respectively - two vital components for packaging in the beverage industry - could significantly raise production costs. These higher costs could prompt adjustments in pricing strategies, potentially leading to price hikes for consumers. Tariff implications for consumer goods may also strain international trade relations and introduce uncertainties for companies operating in global markets.

Supply Chain Adjustments

When it comes to the dynamics of trade tariffs and the CPG industry, companies are expected to reevaluate and adapt their supply chains. They might turn to strategies like sourcing diversification and near shoring, which bring manufacturing closer to domestic markets. These strategies will probably reduce risk and stabilize operations, but they also come with their own challenges, such as ensuring supplier reliability and managing costs.

Market Access Challenges

Retaliatory tariffs imposed by trading partners could create barriers to accessing international markets and impact CPG exports. This, and potential restriction in revised trade agreements, could limit growth opportunities abroad, so companies may need to develop localized strategies to maintain competitive market positions.

Corporate Tax Reforms and CPG Profitability

Corporate tax reforms aim to stimulate economic growth and improve profitability in the CPG sector. By reducing tax burdens and encouraging the return of overseas profits, these policies can reshape financial strategies, investment decisions, and competitive dynamics within the industry.

Reduction in Tax Rates

Lowered corporate tax rates will significantly boost the bottom line for CPG companies, allowing them to reinvest in operations, expand product lines, and enhance supply chain efficiency. Some companies may also allocate savings toward shareholder dividends or stock buybacks. However, the long-term benefits depend on maintaining stable policies and adapting to market conditions that could offset initial gains, such as inflation or rising input costs.

Repatriation of Overseas Profits

Policies that encourage the return of profits held abroad could unlock substantial financial resources for the CPG sector. Repatriated funds are expected to drive domestic investments in manufacturing facilities, innovation, and workforce development. These investments could strengthen production capabilities and create jobs, although their scale may vary across the sector based on company size and strategic priorities.

Impact on Small and Medium Enterprises 

While tax reforms benefit large CPG corporations, SMEs may struggle to access the same tax-saving opportunities, which may potentially widen the competitive gap. On the other hand, reduced tax rates can provide much-needed relief to SMEs that fosters innovation with the right strategies.

Deregulation and Its Influence on CPG Operations

The focus on deregulation aims to reduce operational burdens for industries, including the CPG sector. While these efforts can lead to cost savings and greater flexibility, they also introduce new challenges in balancing efficiency with environmental and consumer responsibilities.

Environmental Regulations

Relaxed emission standards or reduced oversight of waste management can lower compliance costs for CPG manufacturers. However, this cost reduction may come at the expense of sustainability initiatives, which many consumers now expect from brands. Balancing cost efficiency and environmental stewardship remains crucial, not to neglect green practices.

Labor and Employment Laws

Adjustments to overtime rules or union requirements directly impact workforce management. While deregulation may offer employers flexibility in structuring wages and benefits, it could also affect employee satisfaction and labor relations. Many companies may turn to automation and advanced technology to offset labor costs, a trend that could reshape job roles and workforce dynamics in the sector.

Product Safety Standards

Changes in product safety regulations may simplify compliance. However, reduced oversight could introduce risks related to product quality or consumer safety. Maintaining rigorous internal quality assurance processes will be essential for companies to keep consumer trust and avoid potential legal or reputational fallout.

Tariff Implications for the CPG Supply Chain

The changes in tariff policies are expected to result in rising costs, shifts in sourcing strategies, and adjustments to inventory management practices, requiring companies to adapt for competitiveness and profitability.

Cost Increases

Tariffs on raw materials and finished goods are projected to drive up input costs for CPG companies. For example, duties on imported aluminum could directly impact manufacturing expenses. Companies may need to decide whether to absorb these costs, which would pressure profit margins, or pass them on to consumers, potentially affecting CPG market dynamics regarding price sensitivity and demand.

Sourcing Strategies

Many CPG businesses are likely to reevaluate their sourcing strategies. Shifting to domestic suppliers or exploring alternative international partners could reduce tariff exposure, though this approach may bring challenges, such as higher costs or quality inconsistencies. As companies adapt, these changes will need to prioritize supplier reliability and cost efficiency to ensure supply chain resilience in the long term.

Inventory Management

Tariff uncertainties may lead to a reconsideration of inventory management practices within the CPG sector. Companies might move away from just-in-time systems and stockpile materials or finished goods to avoid potential cost spikes. However, this approach raises storage costs, creating financial risks if demand forecasts are inaccurate.

Effects on Field Marketing Strategies

As the economic policies of the Trump administration take shape, the field marketing strategies within the CPG sector are likely to experience notable shifts. Businesses are expected to adapt to consumer behavior shifts and budget allocation.

Budget Allocation

Economic conditions often influence how much companies allocate for marketing strategies in CPG. Lower corporate tax rates and potential policy-driven shifts may lead to spending more on marketing in general, especially on digital marketing. Social media channels and online platforms are expected to drive CPG companies to focus more on digital outreach, while traditional field marketing will probably see a decline. Budget cuts in some sectors may push brands to prioritize cost-effective digital campaigns over larger, in-person promotional activities.

Consumer Engagement

Shifting economic dynamics may also cause consumers to change their purchasing behaviors. That’s why CPG companies are expected to focus on personalized, experiential marketing to strengthen brand loyalty. These consumer engagement tactics could include digital experiences or localized events that create emotional connections with consumers and reinforce brand value during uncertain times. Ensuring meaningful consumer engagement will continue to be a top priority.

Measurement and Analytics

As marketing budgets tighten or shift focus, using data analytics to measure the success of their campaigns will be key for CPG brands. The role of technology in tracking real-time performance and adapting strategies will only grow. By using analytics to track consumer responses and campaign effectiveness, companies will be better equipped to refine their marketing approaches.

Case Studies: Successful Strategies for CPG Brands in Adapting to Economic Shifts

As the economic policies of the Trump era influence the market, CPG companies will need to look for ways to adapt and thrive. The following case studies by Attack! Marketing illustrate how brands like Josh Cellars and KeVita have effectively navigated challenges such as shifting marketing strategies and the need for data-driven decision-making. Their approaches provide valuable insights for companies anticipating similar economic pressures in the future.

Josh Cellars 

Josh Cellars’ partnership with Attack Marketing during the "Respect the Ride" campaign provides a glimpse into how experiential marketing can actually thrive under shifting economic policies.

As businesses anticipate potential changes in tax and trade policies, campaigns like Josh Cellars show the value of locally tailored marketing approaches. The initiative successfully scaled across 28 markets, using community-focused strategies to boost consumer trust and engagement. This might definitely apply to future economic conditions, where localized campaigns may help dodge broader market uncertainties.

The highlights of this case are:

  • Consumer Engagement: Personalized touchpoints, such as branded wine labels, boosted emotional connections with customers, a strategy that aligns with projected increases in experiential marketing.
  • Adaptability: The campaign's ability to optimize quickly using real-time data emphasizes the importance of agility in field marketing, especially as economic policies evolve.
  • Sales Impact: A notable increase in sales across all regions demonstrates how experiential efforts can drive tangible results, even in uncertain economic times.

KeVita

KeVita’s partnership with Attack Marketing showcases how experiential campaigns and robust data strategies can position brands for sustained growth. CPG companies may adopt this approach amid expected economic shifts under a renewed Trump administration.With the potential for trade policy adjustments and tax reforms, brands like KeVita demonstrate the importance of using experiential marketing and data analytics effectively to maintain market competitiveness. KeVita's ability to drive consistent sales nationally highlights a proactive approach that aligns with anticipated economic challenges.The key takeaways of this case study are:

  • Effective Scaling: Activating over 1,000 retail demos nationwide shows the power of scalable campaigns, which could help brands adapt to changing trade policies and consumer preferences.
  • Data-Driven Insights: The use of a custom reporting portal to monitor performance in real-time shows the growing importance of analytics in adjusting marketing strategies.
  • Sales Incentives: Initiatives to boost sales velocity reflect the need for innovative strategies to increase revenue amid potential policy-driven cost pressures.

Influence on Experiential Consumer Experiences

The economic policies under the Trump administration’s second term are expected to influence brands’ experiential consumer experiences. Businesses will have to navigate new fiscal realities, so they will need to balance cost-effectiveness with meaningful interactions that resonate with consumers.

Event-Based Marketing

Many CPG companies may lean toward hosting smaller, localized events. These gatherings would reduce their overhead costs and foster stronger community connections. They might also collaborate with local vendors, as it supports local economies and showcases the authenticity of brand messaging. Brands will also need to show flexibility in event design, whether by accommodating budget constraints or addressing shifting consumer preferences.

Digital Integration in Experiences

Digital tools such as AR and VR will play a large part in experiential marketing. Policies that promote technological growth may only speed up the adoption of digital-first strategies and offer brands cost-effective ways to engage consumers. Hybrid events that combine physical interactions with digital experience are also gaining traction.

Consumer Sentiment and Brand Perception

Economic policies that affect pricing can influence how consumers perceive a brand’s value proposition. Transparent communication regarding price changes or product adjustments will be even more important for maintaining trust. Brands may also invest in initiatives that reinforce loyalty, such as exclusive rewards programs or better customer support, to reassure consumers and solidify long-term relationships during economically sensitive times.

Conclusion

The Trump era impact on CPG industry will mostly be shaped by the economic policies that might be introduced. From corporate tax reforms that foster reinvestment to trade policies that will reshape supply chains and deregulation that streamlines operational processes, these changes will redefine CPG as we know it today. Companies will have to adapt their marketing efforts to address rising costs, shifts in sourcing, and consumer expectations.

Field marketing strategies and experiential consumer experiences will also undergo a transformation as brands will have to balance economic constraints with the need to maintain engagement. We will probably see companies embracing digital tools even more, focusing on localized events, and using real-time analytics.

Looking ahead, CPG companies will have to prioritize agility and innovation to stay ahead in a dynamic market. They can uncover new growth opportunities only by adapting proactively to policy-driven shifts and taking a consumer-centric approach.

At Attack! Marketing, we specialize in creating impactful, fully adapted field marketing and experiential campaigns for your brand. We can help you navigate these policy changes with confidence, ensuring your brand stands out. Contact us today so we can help you maximize opportunities and connect with your audience.

FAQs

1. How can CPG companies adapt to trade policy changes?

Companies can diversify their supply chains, explore domestic sourcing options, and adjust inventory strategies to minimize disruptions and manage costs effectively.

2. How do tariffs impact CPG profitability?

Tariffs increase costs for imported raw materials and finished goods, forcing companies to reassess pricing, margins, and competitiveness in the market.

3. What role does consumer sentiment play in marketing?

Consumer sentiment influences brand loyalty, purchasing decisions, and the perceived value of products, making it critical during economic or policy shifts.

4. What challenges do SMEs face under new tax policies?

SMEs often have difficulty reinvesting due to limited tax savings. They also compete with larger corporations, which benefit more significantly from reduced tax rates.

5. How do deregulation efforts benefit CPG companies?

Deregulation reduces compliance costs, accelerates decision-making, and allows businesses to allocate resources toward growth and innovation instead of regulatory management.

Further reading on the Attack Marketing blog:

Christian Jurinka

20+ years
of experience
About the author

Christian Jurinka serves as the CEO and oversees the business development and strategic vision for the agency. Attack! connects brands with consumers, driving loyalty, purchase and velocity through comprehensive, ROI-focused field marketing services.

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About the author

Christian Jurinka

15 years of experience